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Poker ArticlePot Odds RevisitedBy connecting pot odds to the value of hands, even those normally associated with Jackpot Scratch Cards can start to make statistically sound decisions.As a rule of thumb, every ‘out’ (card required to make your hand) gives you an approximate chance of 4% of hitting on either the turn or river. Let’s use this idea in an example to demonstrate this relationship between pot odds and value. Hole Cards : K Hearts 10 hearts Flop : 3 hearts 7 hearts A spades You have a flush draw, which means you have 9 outs. 9x4=36%. Put another way, you are 2:1 against to hit your flush. This means that you will need pot odds of at least 2:1 to make a mathematically sound call on the flop if your opponent raises. The 36% figure however is across both the turn and the river. Hitting the flush on the turn decreases the figure to 19% so be careful if you think you might have to see another bet after the turn has hit. Hole Cards: 4 diamonds 4 hearts Flop : 10 clubs 7 hearts K spades With an underpair your odds for hitting a set are slim – 4% on the turn, or 8% on the turn or river combined. This means that any sizeable bet will mathematically make calling a problem. For example, if the pot stands at 400 after the flop and your opponent bets 100, your odds are 20% (100 into 500) and hand value stands at 8%. It is an easy fold unless of course you believe you have a telling read on the player. A friend once told me this; “In poker, there are two types of players. The first group are players who take bad odds in hopes of getting lucky. The second group are players who cash in on the good odds that are left by the first group.” |
